Why a disclosed amount is a range and never a number
A periodic transaction report does not contain a dollar amount. It contains a checkbox. Every figure written about congressional trading profits is estimated from that checkbox — the question is whether the estimate is labelled as one.
The ladder
Ten brackets, from $1,001 at the bottom to an open-ended top rung. A filer ticks one. The table below is read from the same database the rest of this site uses, so it cannot drift from what our pages actually enforce. The third column is the size of the guess any estimate built on that rung is making.
| # | Bracket as filed | Width of the uncertainty |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,001 – $15,000 | $14,000 |
| 2 | $15,001 – $50,000 | $35,000 |
| 3 | $50,001 – $100,000 | $50,000 |
| 4 | $100,001 – $250,000 | $150,000 |
| 5 | $250,001 – $500,000 | $250,000 |
| 6 | $500,001 – $1,000,000 | $500,000 |
| 7 | $1,000,001 – $5,000,000 | $4,000,000 |
| 8 | $5,000,001 – $25,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| 9 | $25,000,001 – $50,000,000 | $25,000,000 |
| 10 | Over $50,000,000 | unbounded |
What the midpoint costs
Because the filing has no figure in it, every dollar amount you have ever read about congressional trading — including on this site — was estimated from these brackets. The standard method, and ours, is the midpoint: a "$1,001 – $15,000" trade is treated as $8,000.
That is a real estimate with a knowable error. Take "$1,000,001 – $5,000,000". The midpoint is $3 million and the true value is anywhere across a $4 million span, so a single trade can be wrong by roughly two thirds from bracket width alone — before any question of what the shares did afterwards. The "width of the uncertainty" column above is that error, per rung.
The full method, with a worked example, is in [the estimated values guide] — and every figure on the site links to it.
Sources
Keep reading
- How we estimate what a trade was worthA filing has no dollar figure in it. Here is exactly how we turn a bracket into an estimate, what that estimate can and cannot say, and how wrong it is allowed to be.
- How to read a periodic transaction reportEvery field on the form, which three actually matter, and the two that are most often misread.
- The STOCK Act, explainedWhat the 2012 law actually requires members of Congress to disclose, who it covers, and the three things people most often get wrong about it.
General information about a public disclosure law. Not legal advice, not investment advice, and not affiliated with any government body.