What a disclosed trade estimate can and cannot tell you

A hypothetical method, in three steps

1. Take the midpoint of the filed bracket

The midpoint of "$15,001 – $50,000" is $32,500.50, approximately $32,500. The unknown amount can differ by almost $17,500.

2. Divide by the closing price on the trade date

That gives a hypothetical share count, not a reported one. Using a close on or before the trade avoids a later price, but still does not establish the actual execution price.

3. Multiply by the change in price since

Hypothetical shares times a later price change produces a modeled change in value if the asset was held. It is not realized profit.

Where the calculation fails

Sales

A sale has no cost basis in the record — we never saw the purchase. We preserve the filed amount. A zero would read as "made nothing", which is a claim; we show no profit figure.

The open-ended top bracket

"Over $50,000,000" has no midpoint. Inventing a ceiling for it would be the largest single fabrication on the site, so those rows are flagged and left unestimated.

Anything without a price

A missing or unreliable price or trade date makes this calculation unsupported. An asset without an unambiguous ticker cannot be priced by guessing a similar company name.

Changes the simple example leaves out

Splits, dividends, fees, taxes, later sales and transfers can change the result. A two-price illustration does not account for them.

What these numbers are not

A periodic transaction report records transactions, never holdings, so a member’s portfolio total is not derivable from this data at all — not by us, and not by anyone else publishing one.

The transaction date is not the filing date, and the filing date does not prove when a reader first had access to the document. Late reports and later publication can extend the delay. These records describe past disclosures; nothing here is investment advice.

Sources

• U.S. House Clerk — Financial Disclosure search
• House Committee on Ethics — financial disclosure requirements

Keep reading

• How congressional disclosure amounts are reportedThe standard form uses ten brackets; rare amended filings can state an exact value. Here is what the source says and what must be estimated.
• How to read a periodic transaction reportEvery field on the form, which three actually matter, and the two that are most often misread.
• The STOCK Act, explainedWhat the 2012 law actually requires members of Congress to disclose, who it covers, and the three things people most often get wrong about it.